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Commodities News

Up-to-date news on raw materials


FT Mercati provides subscribers with a dedicated commodities news bulletin to stay up-to-date.
Here is a selection of the latest news:

11/3/2025

DEMAND ESTIMATES IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES - WSA

The World Steel Association (WSA) has anticipate in its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO) that steel demand in CHINA will continue its decline in 2025, falling by approximately 2.0%.
This forecast represents a moderation of the downward trend observed since 2021, driven primarily by the ongoing downturn in the housing market. Looking ahead to 2026, the decline is projected to further decelerate to 1.0% as the housing market bottoms out. A tougher global trade environment poses a significant downside risk, potentially slowing steel demand from the manufacturing sector. Additionally, lingering financial pressures on local governments could constrain infrastructure investments, further dampening demand.
DEVELOPING WORLD
Steel demand in the DEVELOPING WORLD excluding China is forecast for robust growth, with a 3.4% increase in 2025 and a 4.7% increase in 2026. This expansion is primarily driven by strong performance in India, and some ASEAN and MENA countries: steel demand in INDIA will continue to charge with around 9% growth in its steel demand over 2025 and 2026, driven by continued growth in all steel using sectors.
In 2026, demand is projected to be almost 75 Mt higher than in 2020.
AFRICA:
For nearly a decade, starting in the mid-2010s, steel demand in AFRICA remained largely flat, hovering around the 35–40 Mt mark. However, estimates that over the past three years, Africa's steel demand has grown by an average of 5.5% per annum, fueled particularly by robust activity in the Northern and Eastern regions. This renewed momentum, which brought Africa’s steel demand to about 41 Mt in 2025, is underpinned by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and governance.
CENTRAL and SOUTH AMERICA
WSA anticipate a relatively strong 5.5% growth in CENTRAL and SOUTH AMERICA's steel demand this year. The forecast of 5.5% growth is expected to push the region’s total steel demand to approximately 50 Mt. A recovery is anticipated in 2026, with projected growth of 1.5% as steel demand in the EU and US is expected to bottom out in 2025 and post modest growth thereafter.
EU and UK
WSA expect the EU+UK region’s demand to grow 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. The long-awaited return of steel demand growth in the EU reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defence spending in the continent in combination with improving macroeconomic conditions such as lower inflation, easing credit conditions, and improvements in real household income.
US
Steel demand in the US is expected to rebound by 1.8% in 2025 thanks to front-loading of production ahead of increased tariffs and continued growth in infrastructure spending. In 2026, WSA expect steel demand to grow by 1.8%, aided by pent-up demand in residential construction and private investment, easing financing conditions, and reduced incertainty.

11/3/2025

BRAZIL - IMPORT BILLET PREMIUM STEADY; MARKET FOCUSES ON 2026 CONTRACTS

The Brazilian import aluminium billet premium was stable in the fortnight to Friday October 31, with market participants focusing on next year’s contracts.
Five traders were collected at $310-350 per tonne.
According to market participants, the premium for import aluminium billet is steady, with focus shifting toward contracts for the upcoming year.
“At this time of the year, in the metal market, it’s normal to have negotiations for the following year. In the aluminium market, monthly sales volumes are not very high — deals are typically made month by month,” a Brazilian producer source said.
Brazilian trader sources also said the focus is on next year’s contracts.
Luciano Alves, chief executive officer of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA), said that US tariffs have led more suppliers to redirect products to Brazil, intensifying competition in the domestic market.
Still, he noted that CBA has maintained an advantage through its low-carbon products and long-term client relationships.
Alves added that this increased competition should be temporary, as US inventories are expected to run low by year-end, prompting buyers to return to the market even while paying tariffs.

11/3/2025

BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE

OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
31 october = $ 66.72 /b (up from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.

11/3/2025

SHFE BASE METALS STOCKS MOSTLY UP; COPPER RISES 10.83%

Deliverable stocks of all base metals in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)-registered warehouses increased in the week to Friday October 31, with the largest percentage rise in copper, SHFE’s weekly stocks report showed.
SHFE copper stocks totaled 116,140 tonnes, rising by 11,348 tonnes or 10.83% from 104,792 tonnes one week earlier.
Market sources primarily attributed the buildup in copper inventories to high price levels, which have dampened purchasing interest among downstream consumers.
In contrast, zinc stocks recorded the largest outflow, declining by 5,752 tonnes or 5.27% to 103,416 tonnes.
The destock of zinc is likely driven by the recent export opportunities for refined zinc, as the arbitrage loss has continued to narrow since early September, Fastmarkets learned from market sources.
Other base metals stock changes
• Aluminium stocks down by 4,594 tonnes (3.89%) to 113,574 tonnes.
• Lead stocks down by 334 tonnes (0.92%) to 35,999 tonnes.
• Nickel stocks up by 676 tonnes (1.87%) to 36,751 tonnes.
• Tin stocks up by 153 tonnes (2.65%) to 5,919 tonnes.

11/3/2025

LME BASE METALS ALL LOWER IN EARLY TRADING

Copper edged further below $11,000 per tonne and all other base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were lower in early trading on Friday October 31.
Three-month futures prices at 9am on Friday, compared with Thursday's 5pm close:
• Copper: $10,861.50 per tonne, down by 0.51%
• Aluminium: $2,861 per tonne, down by 0.09%
• Nickel: $15,190 per tonne, down by 0.26%
• Zinc: $3,031 per tonne, down by 0.21%
• Lead: $2,014 per tonne, down by 0.40%
• Tin: $35,900 per tonne, up by 0.30%
Base metals stock movements in LME-registered warehouses on Friday morning:
• Total copper stocks: 134,625 tonnes (down by 325 tonnes)
• Total aluminium stocks: 558,050 tonnes (up by 98,525 tonnes)
• Total nickel stocks: 252,102 tonnes (up by 462 tonnes)
• Total zinc stocks: 35,300 tonnes (up by 400 tonnes)
• Total lead stocks: 220,300 tonnes (down by 3,875 tonnes)
• Total tin stocks: 2,875 tonnes (up by 85 tonnes)
The US Dollar Index was 99.54 at 9:00am on Friday; it was 99.53 at 5:29pm on Thursday.

11/3/2025

NUCOR TO SHUTTER MONTERREY FACILITY

Nucor Corporation will close its cold-finish bar facility in Monterrey, Mexico, as the steelmaker consolidates operations and cites an influx of low-priced steel imports that have eroded competitiveness in Mexico’s downstream market, the company said in a statement on October 31.
“The decision was made in response to an influx of cold-finished steel bar and imported finished parts. Notably, the absence of a rules-based trade environment in Mexico has allowed our Mexican customers and competitors to import massive amounts of artificially cheap raw materials and finished products from China and other non-market economies, dumping excess capacity.”
The facility will continue operating until all acknowledged orders and contractual commitments are met, after which Nucor plans to sell the business or its assets, the company said.
The announcement comes as Nucor scales back new investment plans after completing its West Virginia sheet facility.
The decision also coincides with weaker fundamentals in Mexico’s automotive sector — a key downstream market for cold-finished and special-bar-quality (SBQ) steel. According to the Asociación Mexicana de la Industria Automotriz (AMIA), light-vehicle production fell by 6.1% year on year in September 2025 to 355,525 units, while exports slipped 0.3% to 314,656 units. Cumulative January-September output reached 3.02 million vehicles (-0.3%), and exports 2.57 million (-0.9%) from the same period of 2024.