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Commodities News

Up-to-date news on raw materials

FT Mercati provides subscribers with a dedicated commodities news bulletin to stay up-to-date.
Here is a selection of the latest news:

12/4/2025

GLENCORE CUTS 2026 ZINC GROWTH FORECAST

Glencore said its zinc output is forecast to fall to between 700,000-740,000 tonnes next year from 950,000-975,000 tonnes in 2025.
Thereafter, zinc output will stay around 720,000 tonnes per year as some mines, including Antamina, gradually reduce production as they run out of commercially viable ore, Glencore said.
Canadian miner Teck Resources said in October that its zinc concentrates output will gradually start to decline from 2026 as its Red Dog mine in Alaska nears the end of its life.

12/4/2025

GLENCORE CUTS 2026 COPPER GROWTH FORECAST

Miner and trader Glencore lowered its copper output forecast for next year as production challenges at the Collahuasi mine in Chile continue to weigh on plans to ramp up output.
The Swiss commodities giant said copper output in 2026 would be around 840,000 tonnes (840,000 tonnes in 2025) , down from initial plans to produce about 930,000 tonnes.
The Collahuasi mine, which Glencore jointly owns with peer Anglo American, has been affected by lower grades and inadequate water supplies. Glencore and its industry rivals are struggling to ramp up copper output because of declining grades, difficult geological conditions and, more recently, fatal accidents that have disrupted operations.
The challenges have raised concerns over future supply of the metal, spurring a price rally in copper, which is key for electric vehicles, industrial use and AI data centers.

Still, Glencore forecasts copper output rebounding to about 930,000 tonnes in 2027 and reaching a long-held target of 1 million tonnes in 2028 as production at Collahuasi recovers.
Copper output could reach 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, helped by increased production at its African mines as well as the restart of the Alumbrera mine in 2028 and growth projects in Latin America, Glencore said.
Alumbrera is forecast to start commercial production in the first half of 2028, producing about 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum.

12/4/2025

BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE

OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
03 december = $ 63.17 /b (down from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.

12/4/2025

CHINA - REFINED PREMIUMS STABLE WITH PERSISTENT OVERSUPPLY AND SUBDUED DEMAND

Premiums for nickel full-plate cathodes imported into China were unchanged in the week to Tuesday December 2 as demand for the material remained subdued during the year-end market slowdown.
Although the surplus of Class-1 nickel had narrowed in China, ample availability of nickel cathode continued to weigh on prices.
Additionally, demand remained sluggish amid the year-end consumption slowdown, while unfavorable arbitrage conditions further dampened spot liquidity.
Elsewhere, the European uncut nickel cathode premium rose during the week, while the briquette market remained stable.

12/4/2025

INITIAL Q1 2026 ALUMINIUM CIF MJP OFFERS AT $190/T

Negotiations for the supply of aluminium to main Japanese ports (MJP) in the first quarter of 2026 are under way, with an initial producer offer at a premium of $190 per tonne, market participants told.
The initial producer offer was $104 per tonne, or 20.9% above the settled fourth-quarter 2025 premium of $86 per tonne.
The premium in the first quarter of 2025 settled at $228 per tonne, about 20% higher than the current offer level for the first quarter of 2026.

Market participants were generally already bullish at the start of the week and expecting the premium for the first quarter of 2026 to be higher than that of the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, most were expecting a lower premium than what was offered.
A trader at the start of the week said they expected negotiations to “start at around $150 per tonne.”
However, given the higher-than-expected offer, market participants have mostly grown more bullish.
Another trader echoed this sentiment, saying that they believe producers will aim to settle at $150 per tonne, while “traders who are conservative think $120 per tonne.”
The higher-than-expected offer also deterred some traders from engaging in negotiations, with one trader saying that they “don’t like to use MJP’s quarterly pricing structure for sourcing products,” choosing instead to rely on the “spot price premium” because the quarterly offer is “too high.”

12/4/2025

EU - EUROFER FORECASTS GROWTH IN CONSUMPTION FOR 2026 AFTER A 2025 BLEAK

European steel industry association Eurofer in its fourth-quarter market outlook expects some improvement in apparent steel consumption across Europe at the beginning of 2026.
Eurofer said apparent steel consumption would grow by 3% in 2026, revising down its previous forecast of 3.1% growth and leaving it well below pre-pandemic levels. That growth, however, depends on the performance of the industrial sector and the easing of geopolitical tensions.
Eurofer also confirmed its earlier projection for 2025 of a 0.2% drop in apparent steel consumption to 128 million tonnes, with a 0.5% decline in consumption by steel-using sectors, revised from a previously forecast decline of 0.7%.
The downward trajectory in steel consumption follows previous drops observed in the market, with apparent steel consumption falling by 1.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2025, according to Eurofer.
Flat steel prices experienced some growth in the third quarter of 2025 in response to the EU’s impending Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the introduction of new steel safeguards, which are expected to reduce import volumes when they come into effect in 2026.
A lack of end-user demand, however, paired with cheap overseas imports, has kept growth limited.
According to Eggert, new trade measures must be implemented “as a matter of urgency” to prevent further “stockpiling of cheap imports,” which, he added, would “nullify the effectiveness of the measures for the entire year.”

END-USER OUTLOOK FOR AUTOMOTIVE
The output of the EU automotive industry is expected to drop by 3.8% in 2025, following the decline of 9.7% seen in 2024, according to Eurofer data. Meanwhile, a modest growth of 1.4% is expected for 2026.
Eurofer said the auto industry remains highly exposed to trade disruptions and is set to suffer from growing uncertainty, especially following the implementation of new trade tariffs by the US.

END-USER OUTLOOK FOR CONSTRUCTION
The European construction sector also remains under pressure despite some limited growth in steel consumption. According to Eurofer figures, output in the sector has grown by a modest 0.1% in 2025 and is expected to grow significantly in 2026 by approximately 2.2%.
But Eurofer said construction output in the EU continues to be affected by growing costs for construction materials, lack of labor and worsening economic conditions across the region, despite support from public initiatives like the NextGenerationEU package.