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Commodities News

Up-to-date news on raw materials


FT Mercati provides subscribers with a dedicated commodities news bulletin to stay up-to-date.
Here is a selection of the latest news:

3/25/2025

LOOMING NICKEL DEFICIT WILL SEE SUPPLY HEAD OFF A CLIFF - BRAZILIAN NICKEL

A deficit in nickel outside the China-Indonesia supply chain is looming towards the end of the decade, Mark Travers, the chief executive officer of Brazilian Nickel told.
The situation will lead to a massive supply gap and necessitate a response sooner rather than later, he said.
Fastmarkets analysts forecast the nickel market to flip into a 39,000-tonne deficit in 2027, with increasingly large shortfalls each year thereafter. By 2034, Fastmarkets estimates an investment requirement for an additional 567,000 tonnes of nickel. Nickel was in a surplus of 164,000 tonnes in 2024, following a 179,000-tonne surplus in 2023.
Travers said the problem was being compounded by the fact that most Indonesian supply is committed to the Chinese mine owners under long-term offtake agreements.
Indonesian nickel production has expanded significantly in recent years and nation in Southeast Asia is on track to account for an estimated 60% of global nickel supply by 2025 and 75% by 2030.
Indonesia has become more proactive in managing mine supplies in recent weeks, announcing policies that are generally less-accommodating for rapid increases in production and therefore exports.
According to Travers, this approach was much-needed - in part because current nickel prices do not incentivize nickel supplies outside of Chinese-owned supply.
“The Chinese are willing to subsidize increased supply at the current price, whereas no ex-Chinese company, or very few, are going to do so unless they have a counter cyclical view of the future,” he said.
“This means Indonesia is probably not getting its fair shake in terms of that price, not just via processing, but through taxes, royalties and other opportunities,” he added.
At the same time, sustainable development policies are needed for the massive supply response that has taken place in Indonesia, Travers said.
According to Travers, industry analysts estimate that, at the current pace, Indonesia could exhaust its high-grade nickel in less than two decades.
“My understanding is that there are some price differences in the fine terms between a product that might be very high carbon and low ESG, and the cleaner products that are IRA compliant. But there's not a lot of IRA compliant material out there,” he added.
Under the IRA, companies that have a more than 25% ownership or control by a foreign entity of concern (FOEC) - including board seats, voting rights or equity - would not be eligible for the tax credits available under the IRA.
With FEOC nations being China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, that pretty much removes the majority of nickel being produced in Indonesia, because it has a Chinese shareholder base.
On the demand side, Travers said he was unfazed by a trend toward nickel-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) cathodes could result in reduced nickel consumption.
Travers also said that nickel's use in stainless steel remains strong and will continue to strengthen going forward.
“So, fundamentally, we believe nickel demand will settle in a very good place, and you still end up with a market that's in a deficit in the coming years,” he added.
Fastmarkets forecasts primary nickel demand to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% between 2023 and 2034, with growth in demand driven primarily by the batteries sector, followed by the stainless steel industry.

3/25/2025

‘NO FINAL DECISIONS’ ON APRIL 2 TIMING FOR US SECTORAL TARIFF RATES, WHITE HOUSE SAYS

An announcement of sectoral tariff rates on US imports, previously expected on April 2 when reciprocal tariffs are slated to be unveiled, is no longer certain but may still yet occur, according to a White House official.

3/25/2025

BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE

OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
24 march= $ 75.11 /b (up from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.

3/25/2025

TOP 10 STEEL PRODUCING COUNTRIES IN FEBRUARY 2025 - WSA

According to data released by WSA (Worldsteel Association), here is the production of the largest steel producing countries in February 2025 (in million tons).
1. CHINA 78.9 (-3.3% y/y) estimated figure ;
2. INDIA 12.7 (+6.3% y/y) ;
3. JAPAN 6.4 (-8.5% y/y) ;
4. USA 6.0 (-7.0% y/y) ;
5. RUSSIA 5.8 (-3.4% y/y) - estimated ;
6. SOUTH KOREA 5.2 (+0.7% y/y) ;
7. TURKEY 2.9 (-5.6% y/y) ;
8. GERMANY 2.7 (-13.5% y/y) ;
BRAZIL 2.7 (-1.6% y/y) ;
10. IRAN 1.7 (-21.8% y/y) .

3/25/2025

CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION BY REGION IN FEBRUARY 2025 - WSA

World crude steel output for the 69 countries covered by the World Steel Association (WSA) was 144.70 million tonnes in February 2025, down 3.4% from February 2024.
Here is the list of the regions considered, in alphabetical order (in million tonnes) :
1. AFRICA 1.9 (+7.6% y/y);
2. ASIA AND OCEANIA 107.3 (-2.6% y/y) ;
3. EU 27 10.1 (-7.1% y/y) ;
4. OTHER EUROPE 3.3 (-9.7% y/y) ;
5. MIDDLE EAST 3.7 (-11.5% y/y) ;
6. NORTH AMERICA 8.2 (-6.3% y/y)
7. RUSSIA AND OTHER CIS+UCRAINE 6.7 (-1.9% y/y)
8. SOUTH AMERICA 3.4 (-3.2% y/y);
TOTAL 69 COUNTRIES = 144.7 (-3.4% y/y).
NB: In 2023, the 69 countries included in this table accounted for about 98% of total world crude steel production.

3/25/2025

UK FCA FINES LONDON METAL EXCHANGE OVER NICKEL PRICE SPIKE

The UK's financial regulator fined the London Metal Exchange GBP9.2 million on last Thursday over inadequate systems and controls to deal with a controversial spike in nickel prices in 2022.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) noted that the LME's nickel price experienced "extreme volatility" in early March that year, with the price more than doubling to above $100,000 a tonne in the space of little over one hour.
"The LME's systems and controls were not adequate to ensure orderly trading under conditions of severe market stress," the FCA said.
It added that the fine was the first enforcement action by the regulator on a UK investment exchange.
Nickel, used in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries, spiked on March 8, 2022, to a then-record high of $101,365 on a bad bet from a Chinese billionaire following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The LME subsequently decided to cancel all trades made that day and temporarily halted trading.
The FCA said decisions over disorderly markets could be taken only by senior managers, who were not on duty during the time of the spike, which left ill-prepared junior traders to respond.
In response, the LME said that since the incident "significant work by both the LME and the FCA has materially reduced the risks of such an event from occurring again"