1/15/2025
NEW ESTIMATES FOR FITCH SOLUTIONS
Fitch Solutions recently revised down nickel price forecast for 2025 to USD17,000/tonne from USD17,500/tonne.
The surge in Indonesian output, which began with the implementation of the nickel ore export ban in 2020, shows no signs of abating in 2025.
Fitch projects a substantial expansion in global refined nickel production for 2025, mirroring the trend observed in 2024, with Indonesia's output surge being the primary catalyst for price declines. Turning to broader market dynamics, Fitch anticipates that the Trump victory could introduce significant volatility, presenting additional headwinds to nickel prices in 2025.
Nickel prices are set to continue to face downward pressure, seeing more moderate growth than previously anticipated, due to the continued surge in Indonesian nickel production.