DISCOVER FT MERCATI - TRY FOR FREE

›

Commodities News

Up-to-date news on raw materials


FT Mercati provides subscribers with a dedicated commodities news bulletin to stay up-to-date.
Here is a selection of the latest news:

4/17/2025

Q2 MJP 2025 ALUMINIUM PREMIUM DIP

The quarterly premium for aluminium supplied to main Japanese ports (MJP) for the second quarter of 2025 has settled at $182 per tonne over the London Metal Exchange cash price, down by $46 per tonne, or 20.2%, from $228 per tonne in the first quarter.
Producers’ offers initially began at $245-260 per tonne.
Market participants mostly held bearish sentiments throughout the Q2 MJP negotiations amid heightened uncertainty.
In February, United States President Donald Trump announced plans to raise aluminium tariffs from 10% to 25%, beginning March 12, leading to concerns of a change in trade flow, sources said.
“Tariffs shouldn’t be a big deal for Asian participants, the main concern is whether Australia is excluded from the tariffs, which might limit the supply to Japan,” a trader said.
Australia stands as the top origin of imported unwrought and unalloyed aluminum into Japan with 296,134 tonnes in 2024, accounting for 28.2% of the total imports of unwrought and unalloyed aluminium into Japan, according to data from the Trade Statistics of Japan.
However, Australia was not given an exemption from US tariffs on aluminium imports, easing concerns of supply tightness in Asia, according to sources.
Separately, US plans to impose tariffs of around 25% on automobile and semiconductors imports, initially announced on February 18 and signed on March 26, raised concerns among participants as it potentially dampens demand for aluminium, sources told.
Japan exported 1,369,063 units of automotives to the US in 2024, accounting for approximately 32.4% of the Japan’s total automotive exports at 4,217,044 units in 2024, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.
“The 25% auto tariff will be a big hit on the Japanese automotive market. It’s negative news,” a second trader said.

4/17/2025

MAGAZINES FORECASTS FOR JP MORGAN

Following expected reductions in global demand of around 1%, which turn the global balance from a deficit to a surplus, and despite JP MORGAN's forecast of a 1% annual growth in Chinese demand for Aluminium this year, JP MORGAN lowers its short-term Aluminium price forecast and expects prices to average $2,200/mt in Q2 2025.
Although hopes for an acceleration of Chinese stimulus and still robust demand in China could potentially keep prices afloat for a while, JP MORGAN believes that the emerging and increasingly evident loss of momentum in global demand in the coming months will eventually lead to further sustained price declines in all base metals.
WARNING: In past recessions, a contraction of about 2% in global demand for metals coincided with a price decline of about 30%, prompting base metal prices to probe deep into the cost curves of some metals in search of solid fundamental support.

4/17/2025

FORECAST DOWN FOR JP MORGAN

Tariff-driven cuts in economic growth forecasts and the increased likelihood of recession this year translate into sharp cuts in JP MORGAN's metal demand forecasts.
nickel demand cuts increase refined market surpluses. Risks to demand forecasts still remain tilted to the downside.
JP MORGAN in the short term forecasts an average price of $14,000/mt nickel for Q2 2025.
WARNING: In past recessions, a contraction of about 2% in global metal demand coincided with a price decline of about 30%, prompting base metal prices to probe deep into the cost curves of some metals in search of solid fundamental support.

4/17/2025

BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE

OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
16 april= $ 68.06 /b (up from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.

4/17/2025

FORECAST DOWN FOR JP MORGAN

Tariff-driven cuts in economic growth forecasts and the increased likelihood of recession this year translate into sharp cuts in JP MORGAN's metal demand forecasts.
Zinc demand cuts increase refined market surpluses. Risks to demand forecasts still remain tilted to the downside.
JP MORGAN in the short term forecasts an average price of $2,500/mt Zinc for Q2 2025.
WARNING: In past recessions, a contraction of about 2% in global metal demand coincided with a price decline of about 30%, prompting base metal prices to probe deep into the cost curves of some metals in search of solid fundamental support.

4/17/2025

MAGAZINES FORECASTS FOR JP MORGAN

Following expected global demand reductions of about 1% despite a 2.2% annual growth in Chinese Copper demand, JP MORGAN lowers its short-term red metal price forecast and expects prices to average $8,300/mt for Q2 2015.
Although hopes for an acceleration of Chinese stimulus and still solid demand in China could potentially keep prices afloat for a while, JP MORGAN believes that the emerging and increasingly evident loss of momentum in global demand in the coming months will eventually lead to further sustained price declines in all base metals.
Despite this, current demand and price forecasts remain rather benign compared to typical recessions, which are violent and non-linear events.
WARNING: In past recessions, a contraction of about 2% in global metal demand coincided with a price drop of about 30%, prompting base metal prices to probe deep into the cost curves of some metals in search of solid fundamental support.