6/25/2025
MARKET BALANCES IN NEXT YEARS- IEA
According to the analysis of the INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA), in the near term, the nickel market is likely to remain in surplus , driven largely by high investment in recent years, especially in Indonesia. However, with lower supply projections this year, the surplus disappears after 2030 in the base case supply scenario.
Relative to last year’s IEA Outlook, upward revisions in projected production in Indonesia, Russia and China to 2035 are offset by downward revisions in Australia, Canada, the Philippines and New Caledonia, resulting in similar total supply in 2035.
However, high production case has undergone a notable downwards revision due to the prevailing price environment. As several projects were delayed, scaled back or cancelled, 2035 supply is now expected to be 10% lower than last year’s projections. This decrease was largely among non-leading producers, but is also seen in Indonesia. Australia sees the largest downwards revision in projected 2035.