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Commodities News

Up-to-date news on raw materials


FT Mercati provides subscribers with a dedicated commodities news bulletin to stay up-to-date.
Here is a selection of the latest news:

6/25/2025

MARKET BALANCES IN NEXT YEARS- IEA

According to the analysis of the INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA), in the near term, the nickel market is likely to remain in surplus , driven largely by high investment in recent years, especially in Indonesia. However, with lower supply projections this year, the surplus disappears after 2030 in the base case supply scenario.
Relative to last year’s IEA Outlook, upward revisions in projected production in Indonesia, Russia and China to 2035 are offset by downward revisions in Australia, Canada, the Philippines and New Caledonia, resulting in similar total supply in 2035.
However, high production case has undergone a notable downwards revision due to the prevailing price environment. As several projects were delayed, scaled back or cancelled, 2035 supply is now expected to be 10% lower than last year’s projections. This decrease was largely among non-leading producers, but is also seen in Indonesia. Australia sees the largest downwards revision in projected 2035.

6/25/2025

INDONESIA - CONSOLIDATES ITS MARKET DOMINANCE IN SUPPLY CHAIN - IEA

Indonesia maintained its dominance in mined nickel supply in 2024, representing over 60% of global production. Since 2015, its output has increased by 16 times, primarily through laterite ore production. Laterite ore, also produced in Australia, New Caledonia and the Philippines, has traditionally fed ferronickel and nickel pig iron for stainless steel production. However, between 2023 and 2024, output fell by 14% in the Philippines and 50% in New Caledonia.
This according to the analysis of the INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA).
Indonesia’s nickel ore output is expected to continue growing, rising by 25% to reach 3 Mt by 2030, followed by a slower 10% increase to 2040. Although the country’s reserves expanded by over 60% to 55 Mt in 2024,
concerns over resource depletion are expected to limit major growth beyond 2040. Nonetheless, Indonesia remains the dominant player, accounting for around 75% of global supply by 2040.
In the base case to 2035, New Caledonia is the only other major producer to see output growth, as some previously curtailed projects restart. Meanwhile, Canada, Australia and the Philippines see production declines as low prices trigger project cancellations or scaling back.
Indonesia’s production of refined nickel continued to outpace growth in China in 2024, with output rising by almost 10% year-over-year to 1.5 Mt. The country continues to grow its refining capabilities, growing to almost 40% to 2030 and further widening gaps with the second-largest refiner, China.
Also, Indonesia is set to see a 3.5-fold increase in nickel chemical production between 2024 and 2040, in line with its long-term industrial policy goals to capture more of the value chain.

6/25/2025

BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE

OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
24 june = $ 68.71 /b (down from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.

6/25/2025

SUMMARY OF MAIN FERRO-CHROME INDEX OF 24-06-2025

SUMMARY OF MAIN FERRO-CHROME INDEX OF 24-06-2025
1. Ferro-chrome lumpy Cr benchmark indicator, charge basis 52% (and high carbon), Europe, = 1.39 $/LB (declining)
2. Ferro-chrome 50% Cr, delivered Europe, = 1.15 – 1.29 $/LB (declining);
3. Ferro-chrome High-Carbon 6-8.5%, basis 65-70% Cr, max 1.5% Si, Europe = 1.22 – 1.62 $/LB (unchanged)
4. Ferro-chrome 50% Cr import, cif main Chinese ports, = 1.00 $/LB (unchanged).
(Changes compared to the previous week figure are indicated in brackets)

6/25/2025

US REMAINS IN TALKS FOR ANGOLA’S RAIL CORRIDOR

The US International Development Finance Corp. is still finalizing more than $500-million in financing for the Lobito corridor, a railway project that will haul critical minerals from central Africa’s copper belt to an Atlantic port in Angola.
The DFC is “actively negotiating” with stakeholders, including the Angolan government and Trafigura over the funding, Conor Coleman, head of investments at DFC, told reporters on the sidelines of the US-Africa Business Summit in Luanda on Monday. “We remain very committed to that project overall and we’re working tirelessly to make sure that project is effectuated.”
The DFC first said it is reviewing financing for the project in 2023. Coleman declined to comment on the reasons for the delay, adding that they are unrelated to any changes the Trump administration has planned for the DFC.
“There’s business as usual,” at the DFC, Coleman said. “You’ll see us playing a lot in critical minerals infrastructure, both digital and transportation, as well as energy, especially here on the African continent.”
The DFC has committed a $3.4-million technical assistance grant to Pensana’s rare-earths extraction and processing project in Angola and is in talks to finance Carrinho Group’s agricultural manufacturing plant through a senior secured-debt facility.
The Trump administration has shown a keen interest in Africa’s critical minerals as it seeks to challenge China’s dominance.
While the US lags China in the minerals race in Africa, it is “not too late,” Coleman said. China currently processes all the minerals it extracts from the continent in China, “and that’s not what any of the countries want,” he said.
There is room for the US and for the countries to diversify their customer base and think differently about beneficiation, Coleman said. “There’s opportunity in the lateness.”

6/25/2025

SUPPLY AND USAGE jan- april 2025 - ILZSG

Below is a table summary of International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), indicating the world refined zinc supply and usage are (.000 tons):
APRIL 2025 =
Mine production 1,019.2 (declining MoM) ;
Refined production 1,138.4 (increasing MoM);
Metal usage 1,122.4 (increasing MoM) .
JAN- APRIL 2025 =
Mine production 3,937 (increasing YoY) ;
Refined production 4,426 (declining YoY);
Metal usage 4,275 (declining YoY) .