11/21/2025
EU - SLAB SUPPLY MAP TO SHIFT UNDER CBAM; BRAZIL, CHINA LIKELY WINNERS, RUSSIA MAYBE PRICED OUT (2)
But if the country’s emissions were calculated under default emission values, which are set at 3.21 tCO2 per tonne for direct emissions in the preliminary document, CBAM costs for Russia-origin slab would reach €190 ($219) per tonne, which would probably be unmanageable for re-rollers.
“The situation with Russian semi-finished materials is one of the most interesting under CBAM,” a buyer in Italy said. “It’s not clear how they will be able to verify their emissions, considering the continuation of the war they started in Ukraine, sanctions, and the tense relations with Europe.
“They probably rush bookings to get as much [steel slab] as possible delivered in the fourth quarter of 2025, to avoid CBAM. After that [the prospects are] unclear,” the buyer added.
NLMK, Russia’s largest steelmaker - which also owns steel re-rolling plants in Italy, Belgium, Denmark and France, declined to comment.
Vietnam, another major supplier, also has quite high default values, which might result in CBAM costs of €95 per tonne. Indonesia, with default values set at 8.23 tCO2e/t, will be completely out of the market unless it is able to provide actual emissions data.
In contrast, China and Brazil had manageable default values, which would result in quite modest CBAM costs.
Russian slab typically sits at the lower end of Italy’s import slab price assessment, and Chinese slab the top end.
Market sources suggested that Brazil was likely to increase slab deliveries to the EU, considering the competitive edge the country has with lower CBAM costs.
In fact, in the first nine months of 2025, the country supplied the bloc with 398,193 tonnes of slab, more than for the entire year of 2024 when it supplied 313,241 tonnes.
If a non-EU producer cannot provide verified emissions data, the CBAM regulation allows the use of default emission factors published by the European Commission, based on benchmark values or worst-case averages.
“Default emission values have a ‘punitive’ nature. They are set at a high level to encourage countries to cooperate and provide actual emissions data, which are usually below defaults,” a source in Europe said.
According to industry sources, the final set of default values will be published in early 2026 - probably in March or April - together with the final ETS benchmarks.
Until then, market participants face uncertainty over the exact emissions factors that will determine CBAM certificate obligations and import competitiveness.
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