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Commodities News

Up-to-date news on raw materials


FT Mercati provides subscribers with a dedicated commodities news bulletin to stay up-to-date.
Here is a selection of the latest news:

1/15/2025

NEW ESTIMATES FOR FITCH SOLUTIONS

Fitch Solutions recently revised down nickel price forecast for 2025 to USD17,000/tonne from USD17,500/tonne.
The surge in Indonesian output, which began with the implementation of the nickel ore export ban in 2020, shows no signs of abating in 2025.
Fitch projects a substantial expansion in global refined nickel production for 2025, mirroring the trend observed in 2024, with Indonesia's output surge being the primary catalyst for price declines. Turning to broader market dynamics, Fitch anticipates that the Trump victory could introduce significant volatility, presenting additional headwinds to nickel prices in 2025.
Nickel prices are set to continue to face downward pressure, seeing more moderate growth than previously anticipated, due to the continued surge in Indonesian nickel production.

1/15/2025

OVERVIEW OF CHINA'S PRIMARY ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION IN DECEMBER 2024 AND FORECAST FOR JANUARY 2025

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in December 2024 increased by 4.13% YoY, with cumulative production from January to December up 3.89% YoY.
n December, multiple aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi reduced production. Specifically, in Sichuan, high alumina and electricity costs led to severe losses and production cuts, while in Guangxi, some smelters reduced production due to technological transformation, with plans to resume in Q4 2025.
By the end of December, SMM statistics showed that China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.71 million tonnes, with operating capacity around 43.53 million tonnes, and the industry's operating rate increased by 2.49 % YoY to 95.38 %.
Currently, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity shows both increases and decreases. The increase mainly comes from the ramp-up of new projects at a smelter in Xinjiang, while the decrease is primarily due to production cuts at multiple smelters in Sichuan due to losses and at some smelters in Guangxi due to technological transformation. Additionally, a capacity replacement project at a smelter in Inner Mongolia is proceeding as planned and is expected to be completed within the year, while a capacity replacement project in Ningxia has been completed.
Entering January 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain stable, with the negative impact of earlier production cuts on output becoming evident. SMM has learned that no additional smelters plan to cut production. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches (29 january), downstream demand weakens, and some billet plants reduce production, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to decrease further to around 70 % January.
Future attention should focus on changes in aluminum capacity across regions and the operating conditions of downstream sectors such as aluminum billets.

1/15/2025

BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE

OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
14 january= $ 81.25 /b (down from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.

1/15/2025

GLOBAL STEEL SCRAP PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AMID DECLINING DEMAND

Sentiment in the major global steel scrap markets remained bearish in the previuos week , due to soft demand for rebar.
Turkish mills began their February bookings earlier this week, taking advantage of lower prices, but their demand was not strong because of slow finished steel sales, according to market sources.
Major Asian scrap importers have been resisting higher offers from suppliers over the past week due to sluggish rebar demand.
News in brief:
• Turkish steel mills return to deep scrap market; prices decline
• US scrap export prices under pressure on both coasts
• Vietnam importers resist higher prices amid soft demand
• Taiwan import prices pick up on rising offers, but rebar sales lag
• Stronger US dollar weighs on India's import scrap demand

1/15/2025

NOVELIS’ PRELIMINARY REPORT LOOKS BEARISH

Novelis, the global leader in aluminium rolling and recycling and a wholly owned subsidiary of Hindalco has released a preliminary financial report for the third quarter of FY2024-25, outlining its anticipated fiscal and operational performance for the three-month period.
Novelis believes its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) on an adjusted basis to be between $360-370 million, reflecting about a 21 % decline from $454 million recorded during the corresponding period of the previous year.
EBITDA for the same period is estimated to range between $400 and $407 per tonne, down by 18-19 % YoY from $499 per tonne.
Aluminium flat rolled products shipments are likely to remain the same as the previous year, standing at 910,000 tonnes. However, the management is optimistic about the ongoing quarter, expecting EBITDA to rebound to $480-490 per tonne at the end of March 31, 2025.
The brokerage and investment group, CITIC CLSA, is of the opinion that Novelis’ weakness was in projection due to continued correction in aluminium scrap spreads. CITIC also believes the sluggish trend of Hindalco’s stock price is partially due to the slower performance of Novelis.

1/15/2025

SUMMARY OF MAIN FERRO-CHROME INDEX OF 14-01-2025

SUMMARY OF MAIN FERRO-CHROME INDEX OF 14-01-2025
1. Ferro-chrome lumpy Cr benchmark indicator, charge basis 52% (and high carbon), Europe, = 1.32 $/LB (unchanged)
2. Ferro-chrome 50% Cr, delivered Europe, = 1.00 – 1.25 $/LB (unchanged);
3. Ferro-chrome 50% Cr import, cif main Chinese ports, = 0.79 $/LB (unchanged).
(Changes compared to the previous week figure are indicated in brackets)