10/15/2024
COPPER MARKET BALANCE IN 2024-2025 - STONE X
According to STONE X's latest analysis report, there will be a deficit of 252,000 tonnes in the refined Copper market in 2024 and a surplus of 156,000 tonnes in 2025
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10/15/2024
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN GLOBAL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY - WSA
WSA (World Steel Assiciation) earlier projection of a continued recovery in global manufacturing activity in 2024 has not materialised. Instead, the sector experienced a downturn in the third quarter, diverging from the initial growth observed in the first months of the year and the positive signals from leading indicators. WSA observed that a significant contributor to the manufacturing slowdown is the ongoing reluctance of households and businesses to invest in durable goods. High costs, economic uncertainty, and tighter financing conditions have created a “wait-and-see” attitude, delaying spending decisions. The lingering effects of the past three years of inflation have eroded the purchasing power of many middle- and lower-income families, further dampening demand for manufactured goods.
Despite the current challenges, there are reasons for cautious optimism regarding a potential recovery in global manufacturing in 2025. The resilience of the global economy, easing of financing conditions, pent-up demand and increases in real income seen in major economies such as the eurozone and Japan should support a recovery in private consumption and investments, and hence a recovery in global manufacturing activity in 2025.
HOUSING CONSTRUCTION :
has remained subdued in most major markets throughout 2024. A meaningful recovery in residential construction (in the EU, US, and Korea) is expected to begin from 2025 onwards with the expected easing of financing conditions.
AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR:
After an exceptional year of double-digit growth across major auto-producing nations in 2023, the automotive sector is bracing for a significant slowdown in 2024. WSA expects global light vehicle production to show modest growth in 2025.
MANUFACTURING FACILITIES AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
Robust investment in manufacturing facilities and public infrastructure has underpinned global steel demand throughout 2023 and into 2024. These strategic investments aim to enhance productivity, stimulate job creation, accelerate climate change mitigation efforts, and secure a leading position in the industries of the future. Escalating construction costs, labour shortages, and mounting fiscal debt may pose significant challenges for many major economies, potentially limiting further growth in these investment areas in the near term.
GREEN TRANSITION : is one of the major factors behind the strength in public infrastructure investments, as it necessitates an economic transformation of immense scale and complexity. Steel demand for expanding global electricity grids is likely to double by the end of the decade, reaching approximately 20 million tonnes per year, a substantial increase from the current pace of 10 million tonnes per year. WSA estimate that expanding global renewable energy generation capacity and connecting it to demand centres will necessitate a steel demand increase of approximately 40 Mt by the end of the decade. This is likely to give quite a noticeable support to overall steel demand in both major developing economies such as China and India, and developed economies, especially Europe and North America.
10/15/2024
GLOBAL DEMAND WILL ONLY RECOVER IN 2025 - WSA
The World Steel Association (WSA) released an update of the Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2024 and 2025.
Worldsteel forecasts that this year global steel demand will drop further by 0.9% to 1,751 Mt. After three years of decline, WSA expects to see a broad-based recovery in the world excluding China in 2025. Global steel demand is forecast to finally rebound by 1.2% in 2025 to reach 1,772 Mt.
10/15/2024
BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE
OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
14 october = $ 77.18 /b (down from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.
10/15/2024
CHROME TO DOMINATE OPERATIONAL FORECAST - THARISA
Chrome ore will “dominate the operational forecast,” platinum group metals (PGM) and chrome concentrate producer Tharisa said in its annual and fourth-quarter production report for the year ended September 30.
The company, whose chrome production comes from the Tharisa Mine in South Africa, flagged demand from “China and beyond” and stated that “chrome prices remain strong on the back of the fundamentals of the chrome market, with real growth in stainless steel.”
“China is the demand center and if you include Indonesia, they need 1.8 million tonnes of chrome per month to stand still,” a Tharisa spokesman told.
“If the stainless steel industry [there] grows, this will rise, so we maintain that there is a good supply demand/balance in the market. We see [stainless steel production] growth in the low single digits, in line with market views,” the spokesman said.
Meanwhile, following a pronounced drop in chrome ore prices at the end of September, with Fastmarkets’ weekly calculation of its chrome ore South Africa UG2/MG concentrates index, cif China falling 9.97% week on week to $271 per tonne on September 24, from $301 per tonne the week before, levels have stabilized to some extent.
For the full year ended September 30, Tharisa produced 1.7 million tonnes of chrome concentrates, up from 1.58 million tonnes the previous year.
The latest production figure also marked the highest chrome output in the history of the company, it said.
Production guidance for the company’s 2025 financial year has been set at between 1.65 million and 1.8 million tonnes of chrome concentrates.
10/15/2024
Q4 MJP ALUMINIUM PREMIUM SETTLES 1.7% HIGHER THAN Q3
The quarterly premium for aluminium supplied to main Japanese ports (MJP) for the fourth quarter of 2024 has settled at $175 per tonne over the London Metal Exchange cash price on Friday October 11.
Producer offers initially began at $180-185 per tonne in August, with offers heard revised up to $200 per tonne during the negotiations, before settling at $175 per tonne.
Initial deals for the fourth quarter concluded at $175 per tonne, down 2.8-5.7% from the initial producer offers.
Supply-side concerns provided support to the quarterly premium: aluminium smelters’ production cuts and changes in stake at aluminium smelters had market participants concerned about the availability of units to MJPs.
The inflow of unwrought and unalloyed aluminium into Japan from Malaysia stood at 25,432 tonnes from January-August 2024, 3.67% of the total amount of unwrought and unalloyed aluminium imported into Japan within the same period.
Separately, MJP inventories have recovered from a 2024 low of 299,600 tonnes at the end of July - dipping below 300,000 tonnes for the first time since February 2022. Stocks were at 313,100 tonnes at the end of September, according to Japanese trader Marubeni.
Despite the supply-side concerns, the view that inventories remained sufficient as well as poor performing downstream aluminium sectors weighed on the quarterly premium.
“Domestic demand for aluminium remains weak and poor, even within the automotive sector,” a trader said. “It’s different from the earlier expectations of a recovery.”
Also, demand for aluminium in the Japanese building and construction sector was 221,900 tonnes in January-July 2024, down by 8.1% year on year from 241,600 tonnes, according to the Japan Aluminium Association.