8/1/2025
NEWS SERVICE and ANALYSIS REPORT - suspended in August
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7/31/2025
ARCELORMITTAL TO HALVE CRUDE STEEL OUTPUT IN POLAND
ArcelorMittal will effectively halve the amount of crude steel it produces at its Dabrowa Gornicza steelworks in Poland when it idles one of the plant's two blast furnaces in September, due to “extremely difficult” market conditions, the company said .
The two furnaces – BF2 an BF3 – both have the capacity to produce 2.4 million tonnes per year of crude steel,
The company will shut down BF3 in September for an unspecified period of time but said it “will be closely watching market developments” to ensure a timely restart “as soon as market conditions permit."
The company has already begun preparations for the safe stoppage of BF3 – a process will last several weeks – but said that BF2 will continue to operate as normal.
The combination of negative factors, is:
1) very high energy prices (,
2) the fact that only European producers bear the costs of purchasing CO2 emission allowances under the EU (emissions trading system)
3) insufficient trade safeguards
4) consequent very high levels of low-priced imports coming into Poland.
5) a significant drop in sales prices
All these factors have negatively impacted our margins, making the operation of two blast furnaces in these conditions economically unviable, the company said.
Imports accounts for 80% percent of apparent steel consumption in Poland and for flat products, such as hot rolled coil it is as much as 95%, according tot the Polish Steel Association. And, earlier this year, market participants said there had been a sharp increase in HRC imports to the EU, notably from Indonesia.
Statistics from Global Trade Tracker (GTT) show that, in January-April 2025, Indonesia exported 213,152 tonnes of HRC to the EU, compared with just 64,213 tonnes over the same period in 2024, HRC deliveries to the EU from Indonesia amounted to 250,908 tonnes for the whole of 2024.
In January-April 2025, HRC deliveries form Turkey to the EU amounted to 494,907 tonnes, according to GTT, up by 31% from 376,216 tonnes over the same period in 2024.
HRC pricesi in Europe fell from early May until mid July, before some suppliers starting to push for higher offers on July 24.
7/31/2025
CHINA - ALUMINA IMPORTS REACH BREAKEVEN
China’s alumina import margins reached breakeven from July 10 to July 24, signaling the reopening of the arbitrage window and leading to increased liquidity in the Asia Pacific region, with some cargoes now expected to flow into China, market participants said.
Amid the pick-up in trading, several deals were concluded at higher prices, according to market participants, who said that recent bullish sentiment in the region was partly being driven by the opened import arbitrage window.
A Europe-based trader confirmed the trend and said: “There are a few factors at play: one is that China imports are open while the US dollar remains weak; then there is the strong Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina price, which has dragged up the domestic market.”
The previous, profitable, alumina import window occurred between late May and early June this year, with margins peaking at $14.49 per tonne on June 12, with the arbitrage opportunity developing when tight domestic liquidity pushed up Chinese spot prices while overseas markets remained bearish.
Despite the fluctuations in the futures market, spot prices continue to show strength, achieving a six-week high and up by 6.25% MoM.
Some market participants said they expect domestic spot prices to increase slightly or stabilize at the current level in the near future.
7/31/2025
LME MARGINS - second July update
In the summary below, the current margins of the main metals (compared to the previous communication, Aluminium HG, Nickel and Zinc were up; Tin was down)
COPPER (25 tonnes per lot) = $703/tonne - $17,575/lot ;
ALUMINIUM HG (25 tonnes per batch)= 157 $/tonne - 3,925 $/lot ;
ALUMINIUM ALLOY (20 tonnes per batch)= 315 $/tonne - 6,300 $/lot ;
NICKEL (6 tonnes per lot) = $1,677/tonne - $10,062/lot ;
LEAD (25 tonnes per lot)= $144/tonne - $3,600/lot ;
TIN (5 tonnes per lot)= $3,786/tonne - $18,930/lot ;
ZINC (25 tonnes per lot)= 231 $/tonne - 5.775 $/lot .
7/31/2025
INDEXES 30 July
(Changes from the previous figure are indicated in brackets):
BALTIC DRY INDEX = 1995 (decreasing)
Shipping and freight cost index. Despite its name, it collects data from the world's major routes and not only those of the Baltic Sea.
CRB COMMODITY INDEX = 376.30 (declining)
The Commodity Research Bureau has been published since 1958 and is an index on commodities
LME INDEX = 4171.30 (falling)
London Metal Exchange index of non-ferrous metals, world reference.
Currently, the London Metal Exchange Index consists of 6 metals with the following weights: Aluminium (42.8%), Copper (31.2%), Zinc (14.8%), Lead (8.2%), Nickel (2%) and Tin (1%). The weights of the six metals are derived from the global production volume and the trade liquidity averaged over the previous five-year period.
7/31/2025
NEWS SERVICE and ANALYSIS REPORT - suspended in August
We would like to inform our esteemed customers that the NEWS service will be suspended in August, as will the weekly and monthly analysis reports.