DÉCOUVREZ FT MERCATI - ESSAI GRATUIT

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FT Mercati met à la disposition des abonnés un bulletin dédié aux matières premières pour rester à jour. Voici une sélection des dernières nouvelles :

10/05/2024

US MONETARY POLICY NAD SPECULATIVE INTERESTS TO DRIVE COPPER TREND IN Q2: SUCDEN

Expected interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and speculative interests will have a strong impact on the outlook for base metals in the second quarter of 2024, Daria Efanova, head of research at UK-based service provider Sucden Financial, said .
All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve while markets expect long-awaited interest rate cuts. Sucden predicts that the Fed will cut rates at least twice in 2024, with the first being in June or July.
Also, she noted the US election in November could create a gap between rate cuts due to potential inflationary pressure, pushing the rate cut further into the year or into early 2025.
In Europe, Sucden predicts that the European Central Bank will cut rates by 25 basis points in June due to the “orderly softening of inflation.”
For the second quarter, Sucden predicts that COPPER will maintain its elevated price level due to both solid fundamentals and easing monetary policy conditions.
In the long term, Sucden predicts that this will be the last year of a global copper surplus and expects market tightness to continue for the rest of the decade.
There’s a lot of mine closures and operational issues that have prevailed over the last couple of years.
She also noted the impact of falling treatment charges (TCs), making profit levels unsustainable for many Chinese smelters and contributing to the tightness in the concentrate market.
Sucden predicts that TCs will remain low.
In the long term, however, Sucden remains bullish on copper and expects more strength for the metal in the coming years due to its increasing use in electric vehicles (EVs).

10/05/2024

NICKEL DRIVEN MORE BY FUNDAMENTALS THAN BY MONETARY POLICY AND SPECULATIVE INTERESTS - SUCDEN

Expected interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and speculative interests will have a strong impact on the outlook for base metals in the second quarter of 2024, Daria Efanova, head of research at UK-based service provider Sucden Financial, said .
But Efanova said that while other base metals have been driven by speculative interests in recent months, nickel is still driven by fundamentals.
Efanova noted the continued dominance of Indonesian material on the market due to its cheaper cost of production.
Sucden believes that a fair price range for nickel is $17,500-18,500 per tonne because this level creates profit margins for producers without incentivizing higher production from Indonesia.
While there is some speculative interest, this will not change the fundamentals narrative, according to Efanova. With Indonesia continuing to prepare for the EV trend, the oversupply in the market will continue, she said.
Sucden predicts that throughout the Q2 nickel prices will maintain their current level, with a slight upside, and this might lead to the restarting of some facilities due to the higher prices.
On the topic of recent UK and US sanctions against Russia-origin nickel, Sucden believes that nickel market participants were less impacted by sanctions because many companies had already diversified their sources.
In the long term, Sucden predicts a lack of market tightness until 2028, when they predict that the EV trend will pick up.

10/05/2024

BASKET OPEC PRELIMINARY PRICE

OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
09 may = $ 84.30 /b (up from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.

10/05/2024

Q1 WORLD’S PRODUCTION UP - PLATTS

In the first quarter of 2024, the world’s primary aluminium production manifested an annual growth trend while it shied away from growing on a quarterly basis.
The global primary aluminium output in Q1 2024 ended March 31 reflected a 4.11% hike YoY but exhibited a 1.24% drop QoQ .
But the monthly production in March, standing at 6.073 million tonnes, increased month-on-month as well as year-on-year by 7.15% and 3.55%, respectively.
Global production in the first quarter of 2024 stood at 17.802 million tonnes, compared to 18.025 million tonnes in Q4 2023 and 17.099 million tonnes in Q1 2023.

10/05/2024

GLOBAL PREMIUMS FLAT DURING CALMER WEEK TO 30 APRIL

The nickel market was quiet in the week to Tuesday April 30, with China approaching the Labor Day holiday and London Metal Exchange prices steady.
Europe = Briquette premiums, uncut cathode premiums and 4X4 premiums in Europe all remained unchanged amid quiet market conditions.
Participants also reported good availability of plate. “I’ve seen offers and I know there is material out there,” another source said.
Briquettes continued to be the most active part of the European nickel market. Significant liquidity was seen within our existing range.
China = Premiums for nickel plates in China remained unchanged amid thin liquidity.
Arbitrage loss lingered, and continued to dampen participants' appetite for seaborne materials.
China’s Labor Day holiday from May 1- May 5 also dampened spot buying appetite.
The current wide range reflects the price differentials among different brands and usages.

10/05/2024

BARRICK GOLD'S COPPER PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 2024

Amid rising copper prices, Barrick Gold Corporation’s copper production remains “on track,” according to company president Mark Bristow.
Though Barrick’s copper production for the first quarter of 2024 was lower than the fourth quarter of 2023 at 40,000 tonnes compared with 51,000 tonnes, it is on par with the first quarter of 2023, and Barrick expects copper production in 2024 to progressively increase each quarter, with a forecast production of 180-210,000 tonnes for the year
Barrick, primarily a gold miner, has had an eye on copper for years. In November 2023, anticipating a long-term rise in the price of copper, Bristow said that “Barrick plans to double its copper production by the end of the decade and continue to increase it to an estimated 1 billion lbs, or 450,000 tonnes, of copper per annum by 2031.”
Also, Bristow said that Barrick is a "leader in sustainability," and that their “transition to clean energy is making steady progress,” with a goal of a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
“The global pursuit of renewable energy has boosted the demand for copper and with it, the price is up 15% in the first quarter of this year,” Bristow said.
Barrick’s adjusted net earnings were up 36% in the first quarter, according to the company's financial results, with revenue at $2.75 billion in the quarter compared with $2.64 billion a year ago.