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FT Mercati provides subscribers with a dedicated commodities news bulletin to stay up-to-date.
Here is a selection of the latest news:
4/22/2025
According to OPEC in its April monthly report, demand for crude oil in the main countries was estimated for 2026 as follows (million barrels/day - annual performance)
USA = 20.50 in 2024 (+0.24%);
Latin America = 7.05 in 2024 (+1.82%);
Europe = 13.55 in 2024 (+0.08%);
Russia = 4.07 in 2024 (+1.12%);
Middle East = 9.09 in 2024 (+1.60%);
China = 17.16 in 2024 (+1.25%);
India = 6.01 in 2024 (+4.26%).
4/22/2025
According to OPEC in its April monthly report, crude oil demand in the main countries was estimated for 2025 as follows (million barrels/day - annual performance)
USA = 20.46 in 2025 (+0.17%);
Latin America = 6.92 in 2025 (+2.05%);
Europe = 13.54 in 2025 (-0.06%);
Russia = 4.03 in 2025 (+1.13%);
Middle East = 8.95 in 2025 (+1.88%);
China = 16.95 in 2025 (+1.62%);
India = 5.76 in 2025 (+3.76%).
4/22/2025
OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
21 april= $ 69.65 /b (up from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.
4/22/2025
Fitch Solutions maintains zinc price forecast for 2025 at an annual average of $2,650/tonne.
Despite averaging $2,848/tonne in the year-to-date, prices are set to continue on the downtrend seen in 2025 thus far (down 9.8% in the year-to-date), effectively erasing 2024 gains. Fitch expects a 5.7% decrease in prices from the 2024 annual average of $2,811/tonne, as refined zinc production rebounds, driven by the alleviation of ore supply constraints. The escalation of risks associated with Trump's trade policies is set to further exacerbate downward pressures on zinc prices.
Fitch revised down demand outlook, as fears of a global recession mount amid Trump's tariff turmoil. Fitch now projects global refined zinc consumption to decrease by 0.9% (down from our previous forecast of an increase in global demand by 1.7% in 2025 previously). Over the medium term, Fitch forecasts zinc prices to average $2,720/tonne between 2025 and 2029, thus remaining below the 2022 levels of $3,440/tonne.
4/22/2025
Fitch Solutions revised downwards 2025 average annual copper price forecast to $9,500/tonne, as heightened trade tensions will prove bearish for the red metal, with the lingering risk of a deceleration in economic growth in major markets posing a significant headwind to demand. Tariff threats continue to be a focal point for copper, and while short-term price surges are possible, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside as trade tensions heat up, with copper expected to feel the brunt of the trade turmoil impacting the most out of all metals. That said, Beijing's potential response with a massive stimulus is likely to offset some of the losses, placing a floor under prices.
In the longer term, Fitch expects prices to reach $17,000/tonne in 2034, as the structural deficit persists due to a strong demand outlook as the green transition accelerates towards the latter half of the next decade.
4/22/2025
Fitch Solutions revised up 2025 aluminium price forecast from an annual average of $2,500/tonne to $2,580/tonne, marking a 5.0% increase from 2024 levels, as market conditions tighten.
Although Trump tariffs present downside risks to aluminium prices in the longer term, Fitch maintains a neutral to slightly bullish stance on aluminium, as a tightening market balance supports prices. While the market has shown resilience in the face of Trump's slew of recent tariff announcements, Fitch anticipates significant price volatility in the coming months.
This instability is likely to be driven by a cascade of trade-related developments, including potential new tariff announcements, subsequent policy clarifications, and retaliatory actions from affected trading partners. Fitch expects the global aluminium market to tip into a deficit of 199kt in 2025 from an estimated surplus of 336kt in 2024, as demand growth outpaces that of supply, creating an environment that could support higher prices. In the longer term, we expect aluminium prices to remain elevated, as demand is supported by the accelerating shift to a green economy and tight market conditions. Beyond 2025, Fitch expects to see limits to Mainland Chinese production growth helping to narrow the global aluminium surplus.
