Russia's seaborne crude exports have fallen to their lowest level since May, squeezed by a combination of recovering domestic refinery runs and Ukrainian attacks that disrupted loading operations at key export terminals, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Russia shipped 3.71 million barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks through August 9, with the most recent weekly figure dropping sharply to just 3.25 million bpd, down from 3.5 million bpd the prior week. The decline marks a notable reversal at a time when Russian crude and condensate production was reported to have risen by roughly 100,000 bpd in July to above 9 million bpd, supported by stronger exports and a rebound in refinery throughput.
The dual pressure of higher domestic processing and port disruptions is at the root of the export contraction. Russian refineries benefited from a brief respite from Ukrainian drone strikes in the second half of July, allowing operators to carry out repairs and ramp up processing capacity. As a result, more crude was diverted from export tankers into domestic refining, reducing seaborne flows.
However, Ukraine adapted its strategy during that lull, redirecting some attacks toward Black Sea tankers and storage infrastructure. Novorossiysk, one of Russia's primary Black Sea export outlets, has been operating at approximately half its peak crude-loading capacity following strikes on tankers near the port. Baltic loadings at Ust-Luga have also suffered, running at roughly half the level recorded two weeks earlier.
Turkey further complicated operations by temporarily restricting certain Black Sea traffic. The situation grew more acute during the first week of August, when Ukraine struck five Russian refineries, with two additional facilities hit in the following week. These new outages are expected to free up additional barrels that would otherwise have entered the domestic refining system, potentially pushing more crude back toward the export market.
Russia had reportedly already planned to increase August shipments from its western ports to accommodate barrels displaced by earlier refinery outages. Absorbing those additional volumes, however, remains a significant logistical challenge. Tanker availability in the Black Sea is constrained, port infrastructure is under pressure, and ongoing attacks continue to complicate both loading and transit operations.
Despite the recent weekly decline, Russia's year-to-date seaborne crude flows are still averaging 3.62 million bpd, approximately 280,000 bpd above last year's average for the same period. Crude held in transit at sea has fallen to roughly 107 million barrels as shipments slowed, even as deliveries to India remained robust. Source: OilPrice.com, reporting by Julianne Geiger, August 11, 2026.
Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Source: oilprice.com